Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World Energy Council, sustainable energy for all. Transport is the only energy sector in which the energy itself is mobile during consumption, rather than being delivered for use at a fixed location. For this reason, energy for transport is dominated by petroleum, which is widely available, relatively inexpensive and from which easily transportable liquid fuels of high energy density such as gasoline and diesel are made.

If we want to manage the fundamental drivers of transport demand, we first need to identify what the fundamental drivers are. Next, we can discuss how these driving forces can be managed and whether the benefits of these policy options are larger than the disadvantages. To gain insight into the fundamental drivers of transport demand, long term developments need to be analysed. This paper takes a look into the history of transport over the last two centuries and investigates the future for the coming half a century. This focus on the long term reveals the fundamental drivers, while neglecting all sorts of temporary and minor influences. The paper illustrates what we all know: The history of transport can be described as a continuous reduction in the friction of distance. Travelling or transporting goods, has become faster, cheaper, more comfortable and reliable. This allowed for the impressive mobility growth we have experienced. In addition, it is likely that new improvements in the price-quality ratio of transport will shape the future.

The FORESIGHT for TRANSPORT project was launched in 2001 under the ‘Competitive and Sustainable Growth Programme’ (1998-2000) of the European Community with the main objective to organise and run a strategic dialogue in the form of a foresight exercise on the influence of non-transport factors and policy on mobility and transport. The implementation of the project entailed the organisation of thematic expert panel consultations on the topics of enlargement, environment and energy, information and communication technologies, multilevel governance and time dynamics, a Delphi survey involving 165 experts around Europe as well as the establishment of a meta-database system with information on indicators that can be used to monitor developments in fields of relevance for transport and mobility.

The main objective of the TRIAS project is to perform an integrated sustainability impact assessment of transport, technology and energy scenarios. In order to fulfil the requirements of an integrated sustainability impact assessment five models simulating economic, transport, environment, energy and technology systems were linked in TRIAS. Finally, the linked models are fed with technology scenarios as well as policies for transport and its energy supply.

The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its 2005 update. The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models. The Baseline scenario for the EU and each of its 27 Member- States simulates current trends and policies as implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006...

DGTREN - European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (update 2005)

The Baseline 2005 report provides an update of the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003. The new Baseline takes into account a high energy import price environment, the unsatisfactory economic growth of recent years and the more subdued growth prospects taking into account demographic developments. It includes, furthermore, new policies and measures implemented in the Member States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens, supported by some more specialised models.

Démarche prospective transports 2050.
Ministère de l'Équipement, du Tourisme et de la Mer. France 2006.

La démarche prospective Transports 2050 a été initiée et conduite par le Conseil Général des Ponts et Chaussées en vue d’engager un débat sur le devenir à long terme du système des transports. Elle est destinée à favoriser l’émergence d’une culture du long terme, partagée avec les services du ministère des Transports et ses partenaires, et à construire des références communes et des questionnements à soumettre aux décideurs publics.

The evolution of transport
J.Ausubel, C.Marchetti

Travel benefits from orientation-fixed points by which to navigate. Our aim is to provide some fixed points derived from a technical analysis of transport systems that enables us to understand past travel and prepare for its future. Along the way, the lunacy of popular ideas such as car pooling, telecommuting, and the revival of traditional railroads will
become clear. Instead, we will offer something far more beautiful: a transport system emitting zero pollutants and sparing the surface
landscape, while people on average range hundreds of kilometers daily on a system of “green” mobility.

Vision 2020 and Challanges
European Road Transport Research Advisory Council. June 2004.

This initial ERTRAC publication reflects a consensus on the Vision 2020 and a summary of ERTRACÕs work as it stands today. The Strategic Research Agenda with detailed definition of future research activities, priorities and road maps will be part of subsequent publications. In the future, road transport will remain an essential component of economic sustainability and social cohesion. Road transport must be seen as part of an integrated system with seamless links and the best possible balance with respect to other transport modes. Growth in a competitive economy and the preservation of quality of life, environment, resources and rational use of space has to comply with the principles of sustainable development and will require efforts in the design, maintenance and operation of the road networks, environmentally friendly vehicles and intermodal solutions...

Monitoring towards 2050
RAC Foundation, UK 2002

The freedom to travel is one of the key qualities of a democracy and we depend on the ability to move around freely to carry out our daily lives; transport is an essential part of a growing economy. Our dependence on travel, particularly by road, was shown by the fuel protests of September 2000 when small number of protesters blockaded the fuel distribution network and within a few days the country was extensively disrupted. The main cause of the protests was initially hauliers complaining about the high cost of fuel duty in the UK compared with their European competitors but it soon turned into a protest about the fuel escalator. This increase in fuel duty above inflation was first imposed by the Conservatives in 1993 and further increased by the Labour administration. Although defended as an environmental tax to lower fuel usage through reducing road use and encouraging more fuel efficient vehicles, the escalator was an easy way to collect an additional £2 billion a year.

Transport Situation in Belgium 2005. Traffic Trends.

Passenger traffic in general: as car ownership remains among the highest in the world, congestion - still mild by international comparison- is getting worse around the cities; however, due to attempts at a more sustainable mobility, all modes of public transport are growing steadily; the number of air passenger is growing fast again after a previous dip.

If we want to manage the fundamental drivers of transport demand, we first need to identify what the fundamental drivers are. Next, we can discuss how these driving forces can be managed and whether the benefits of these policy options are larger than the disadvantages. To gain insight into the fundamental drivers of transport demand, long term developments need to be analysed. This paper takes a look into the history of transport over the last two centuries and investigates the future for the coming half a century. This focus on the long term reveals the fundamental drivers, while neglecting all sorts of temporary and minor influences. The paper illustrates what we all know: The history of transport can be described as a continuous reduction in the friction of distance. Travelling or transporting goods, has become faster, cheaper, more comfortable and reliable. This allowed for the impressive mobility growth we have experienced. In addition, it is likely that new improvements in the price-quality ratio of transport will shape the future.

This report presents the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR traffic in Europe to 2030. This forecast focuses on the developments between 2015 and 2030; the traffic between 2008 and 2014 is discussed in the Medium-Term Forecast published in February 2008. The forecast has been prepared as part of the Challenges of Growth 2008 project. This forecast replaces the Long-Term Forecast issued in December 2006. The EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast will next be reviewed in 2010. The forecast uses four scenarios to capture the possible futures for the aviation industry. Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider all four scenarios as a means to manage risk. There are also a number of other important risks which the forecast has not included. In particular, the possibility of changes to the routing of traffic, major external events and delays in projects for network improvements.

2026 vision of air market, including air travel demand prospections both for passangers and cargo, as well as air traffic forecasts.

Air transport is in a highly dynamic period. Challenges include a slowing world economy, high oil prices, and in some markets, slowing traffic growth. Current Market Outlook 2008-2027 is rooted in today's realities. It goes on to show how air transport will be transformed over the next 20 years. [Summary Outlook] [xls data worksheet]

In forming the Group of Personalities, I gave them a deceptively simple task: to produce, in the context of implementing the European Research Area, a vision for aeronautics in the year 2020. This is not a distant deadline but a sensible reflection of the lead times in the research, development and manufacturing of many of the industry's products and services. It seemed to me that only such a unique grouping could identify a formula for transforming the sector from a follower into a global leader over this period...

The focus of existing policy aimed toward reducing CO2 emissions from air travel, with measures such as the United Kingdom’s recent doubling of air passenger duty, has been on trying to manage air travel demand by raising the cost of travel for passengers. Even the recent debate on emissions trading in Europe has focused on the costs it will impose on airlines and their passengers.This paper presents new research that shows that policies aiming to reduce emissions by managing demand by raising the cost of air travel are likely to fail.Tourists are shown to be very sensitive to prices for air travel on competing airlines or to alternative destinations. However, at the national or pan-national level, these choices cancel each other out; the overall market is much less sensitive to the cost of air travel. It is economic growth and incomes that are found to be the key drivers of air travel demand, and those drivers are expected to remain particularly strong in the developing markets of Asia. Decoupling emissions from travel growth needs to focus not on demand management but on mechanisms to bring about emission reduction measures from technology, infrastructure, and operations.

This study is based on the application of the Maritime Policy Planning Models (MPPM) developed and maintained by the Transport and Tourism Division of ESCAP in collaboration with the Korea Maritime Institute. Its objective is to provide a planning context for decisions facing governments, shipping lines and port authorities in the ESCAP region. This is achieved by providing detailed, quantified and internally consistent structure forecasts of the maritime container transport system serving the ESCAP region through to the year 2015.

The paper approaches port-hinterland dynamics from the perspective of various market players involved, including port authorities, shipping lines, terminal operators, transport operators, logistics server providers...

The FANTASIE project is a major EU research project looking at developments in transport technologies and the effects that these will have on Europe’s future transport systems. In addition, the project will look at how these technologies may influence, and be influenced by, the aims and related initiatives of the Union’s Common Transport Policy.

The FORESIGHT for TRANSPORT project was launched in 2001 under the ‘Competitive and Sustainable Growth Programme’ (1998-2000) of the European Community with the main objective to organise and run a strategic dialogue in the form of a foresight exercise on the influence of non-transport factors and policy on mobility and transport. The implementation of the project entailed the organisation of thematic expert panel consultations on the topics of enlargement, environment and energy, information and communication technologies, multilevel governance and time dynamics, a Delphi survey involving 165 experts around Europe as well as the establishment of a meta-database system with information on indicators that can be used to monitor developments in fields of relevance for transport and mobility.

Exponential growth in air traffic, passenger and baggage volumes and the  ensuing increase in airport congestion will pose an inevitable obligation for wholesale transformation in air transport systems throughout Canada and the world. This will entail everything from major airport expansions and better air traffic management to use of smaller “satellite” airports and heightened passenger throughput in every airport, large and small; from expanded management systems and communications networks that enable more decentralized decision-making to the dissolution of traditional “hub and spoke”
air systems in favour of tailor-made, on-demand, more flexible “free routing” and “free flight operations.”

The future impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS). August 2004.

The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (part of the Joint Research Centre - European Commission) has commissioned a study entitled ‘The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability’, which aims to explore (qualitatively) and to assess (quantitatively) the way that ICTs will influence environmental sustainability between now and 2020. This study is the first quantitative projection to be carried out on how ICTs could affect the environment in the European Union. In order to estimate the effects of ICTs on a set of five environmental indicators, the project team adopted an innovative methodology combining qualitative scenario-building and quantitative modelling.

The future of manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020. The Challenge for Sustainability.
A.Geyer, F.Scapolo, M.Boden, T.Döry, K.Ducatel. March 2003.

The scenarios on the Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020 (FutMan) offer imaginative pictures about potential socio-economic developments and future technologies that are likely to shape the European manufacturing sector over the coming years. The scenarios highlight important trends, possible trend-breaks, critical challenges and opportunities and present four possible visions of manufacturing in Europe in 2015-2020.

Freight Transport Intensity of Production and Consumption.
Steer Davies Gleave. August 2003.

The European Union has decided a sustainable development strategy that includes as an important objective the ‘decoupling’ of transport growth from economic growth. This reflects grave concerns about the problems that would inevitably be associated with ever-increasing
transport.

EUROCONTROL. Long-term forecast. Flight Movements 2008-2030.

This report presents the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR traffic in Europe to 2030. This forecast focuses on the developments between 2015 and 2030; the traffic between 2008 and 2014 is discussed in the Medium-Term Forecast published in February 2008. The forecast has been prepared as part of the Challenges of Growth 2008 project. This forecast replaces the Long-Term Forecast issued in December 2006. The EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast will next be reviewed in 2010.

The 2009 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies. (provisional version)
European Comission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee (AWG).

This report provides a description of underlying macroeconomic assumptions and projection methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States over the period 2009-2060. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers are envisaged to be present to the ECOFIN council in May 2009.