Transport and logistics are the ‘lifeblood’ of the European economy: levels of growth in transport and levels of economic growth are strongly associated. However, the expansion of transport and logistics activities has resulted in increased congestion on Europe’s roads, cities and ports, undermining the capacity of companies in the sector to reliably deliver goods and services on time, and limiting the possibilities for further expansion. Furthermore, growth in transport has led to rising CO2 emissions, posing a challenge for policymakers who seek to foster economic growth while meeting Europe’s targets for greenhouse gas reductions. These challenges are being faced against a background of uncertainty over rising oil prices, a shrinking labour force and ongoing technological change. This dossier explores the current state of the sector generally, and the situation as experienced by four key companies in the sector. It examines the role that location plays in transportation and logistics, through an analysis of location decisions, and through studies of two major transport clusters. It also presents a number of possible future scenarios for the development of the sector over the next decade.

This report sets out four different scenarios for the European transport and logistics sector. Scenarios depict plausible hypotheses about the future; thus, they are useful tools for forecasting, analysing and formulating policy, as well as for strategic planning in private companies and among the social partners. In a rapidly changing and complex world – where demand and supply change equally fast – planning for the future cannot rely on simple projections of past trends. Alternative views of the future can help to broaden the understanding of issues that need to be addressed today. Scenario methodology provides such alternative views by embracing the uncertainty inherent in the future. This outline of four scenarios represents realistic, internally consistent, and plausible pictures of alternative futures for the transport and logistics sector.

Scenario 1: Take the A-train
Scenario 2: I’m in love with my car
Scenario 3: Riding the rainbow
Scenario 4: Moonlight ride in a diesel

The Foresight Project on Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) set out to examine the challenges and opportunities for the UK in bringing ‘intelligence’ to its infrastructure – the physical networks that deliver such services as transport, telecommunications, water and energy. In particular, the project explored how, over the next 50 years, we can apply science and technology to the design and implementation of intelligent infrastructure for robust, sustainable and safe transport, and its alternatives. The technological opportunities and social factors are such that IIS can develop in many different ways. The direction will depend on the direction that society takes. The Foresight project investigated many alternative futures and identified 60 different ‘drivers for change’ (see Appendix). It is difficult to say how these drivers will change the future. However, to illustrate the possibilities, and guide its thinking and analysis, the project created four scenarios of how the future might look.

WorldScan is a recursively dynamic general equilibrium model for the world economy, developed for the analysis of long-term issues in international economics. The model is used both as a tool to construct long-term scenarios and as an instrument for policy impact assessments, e.g. in the fields of climate change, economic integration and trade. In general, with each application WorldScan is also adapted. This publication brings the model changes together, explains the model’s current structure and illustrates the model’s usage with some applications.
[Model explanation]

» Backcasting approach for sustainable mobility
Edited by Apollonia Miola, 2008

Several approaches for strategy analysis and future analysis methods exist: scenario technique, forecasting, backcasting, Delphi studies. In this context, forecasting methods are dominant, but the complementary development of backcasting planning methodology is particularly useful when problems at hand are complex and when present time is part of the problem such as sustainability issues. This report summarises the results of an exploratory research on “Backcasting approach for sustainability planning in the transport sector”. Aim of this research is the identification of main elements of a methodology to develop backcasting scenarios for policy of sustainable mobility. The report consists of two sections. The first part analyses the most common future methods. It examines the applications of backcasting approach in a sustainability context and identifies main steps of a backcasting exercise to achieve a sustainable transport system. In the second section, a backcasting exercise to define an EU sustainable transport system is developed to give a practical example of this method and to define some policy packages to achieve an EU sustainable mobility.

This information material is produced to support the Interview Meetings on The Future of European long distance Transport. These meetings are part of a project that The Danish Board of Technology is conduction on behalf of the STOA-Panel at the European Parliament. (STOA: Science and Technology Options Assessment). The objective of the STOA project is to contribute to policy clarification for sustainable, efficient and less oil dependent long distance transport in Europe, including both passenger and freight transport.

The information material includes the following:
· Two articles written by a science journalist given an overview of some of the challenges from long distance transport regarding oil dependency, CO2 emissions and infrastructure expansions to enable mobility
· The stories of John and Maria, illustrating different views on the possible solutions to long distance transport and climate change
· A list of technologies and policy measures mentioned in the stories of John and Maria.

This is ANNEX V of the final report for ‘Assessment of the contribution of the TEN and other transport policy measures to the mid-term implementation of the White Paper on the European Transport Policy for 2010’.

This is ANNEX V of the final report for ‘Assessment of the contribution of the TEN and other transport policy measures to the mid-term implementation of the White Paper on the European Transport Policy for 2010’.

The main objective of the project is to develop spatial scenarios which should on the one hand be prospective, capable of prognostics with reference to a laissez-faire scenario on themes of the ESPON and policy orientations of the ESDP. On the other hand the scenarios should as well be proactive testing alternative objectives and provide insight for recommendations on policy adjustments/changes in EU policies that would favour a balanced and polycentric territory and territorial cohesion within an enlarged European Union. The time horizon for the spatial scenarios is set to 2015 (mid term) and 2030 (long term).

The notion that Europe at the start of the third millennium is facing many challenges has gained widespread credence. The fact that our societies along with their values and traditions are changing rapidly is also commonly accepted. Daily, the threats and opportunities stemming from new technologies are the subject of numerous public debates. Our political leaders incessantly reiterate that we must find new ways to deal with the complexity of our contemporary world. Very seldom, however, are concrete examples presented in order to give people the opportunity to form an idea of how the future of Europe might look. Even more rarely are coherent and contrasted illustrations given of how Europe may evolve in the future depending on the actions and decisions that are taken today.

Each generation understands its historic moment as unique, and its future as rife with novel perils and opportunities. This is as it should be, for history is an unfolding story of change and emergence. Each era is unique—but in unique ways. In our time, the very coordinates through which the historical trajectory moves—time and space—seem transformed. Historical time is accelerating as the pace of technological, environmental and cultural change quickens. Planetary space is shrinking, as the integration of nations and regions into a single Earth system proceeds. Amid the turbulence and uncertainty, many are apprehensive, fearing that
humanity will not find a path to a desirable form of global development. But a transition to an inclusive, diverse and ecological planetary society, though it may seem improbable, is still possible.

This is the reason why the Federal Ministry for the Environment has asked VITO and ECONOTEC to undertake a study aimed at establishing a set of key assumptions specific for Belgium. These key assumptions would be the basis for the calculation of emission projections and assessment of emission reductions for the mid- and long-term (2020 and 2050) to be performed in the framework of a subsequent study. They should reflect the international framework and the specificity of the country, its regions and its specific sectors.

The partial equilibrium model PRIMES-transport has been used for the evaluation of different transport policy measures which are on the table at EU or national level. The model covers the transport activity by transport mode and their associated energy consumption and air pollution in the EU, country by country. A full range of alternative technologies for each mode are considered and the choice of technologies is based on the generalised cost concept, inclusive the time cost and other not direct cost element. In a first part, the design of the model and the reference scenario specification are described. Then in a second part the different transport policy measures are evaluated. The policy measures are the introduction of more fuel efficient road vehicles (furthering the ACEA agreement), the promotion of biofuels (EU proposal), the introduction of low-sulphur heavy fuel in navigation and finally the German LKW-Maut road-toll. Their impact are evaluated in terms of transport activity (overall and per mode), energy consumption, emissions and associated damage and technological choice.

It is clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught with uncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors that can develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to gain insight into the future development of the transportation sector. It presents the development of the transport sector based on four globalisation scenarios. On three different scale levels (global, European and Dutch) four future images of the transportation market are constructed. The expected implications of these scenarios are mapped out in a clear description of the various relevant aspects, such as modal split and spatial organisation. In addition, this paper also provides empirical insight into expected transport flows of passenger (passenger kilometres) and freight transport (ton-kilometres) in 2020, based on data from 1995. It appears that globalisation leads in all scenarios and on each scale level to a considerable growth of transported volumes.

Transport systems in Australia will change dramatically this century, independently of climate change mitigation. High oil prices and population growth will change technologies, urban forms and roles of different modes of transport.

An emissions trading scheme will guide this transformation to loweremissions transport options.

Higher oil prices and a rising emissions price will change vehicle technologies and fuels. The prospects for low-emissions vehicles are promising. It is likely that zero-emissions road vehicles will become economically attractive and be the most important source of decarbonisation from the transport sector.

Governments have a major role to play in lowering the economic costs
of adjustment to higher oil prices, an emissions price and population
growth, through planning for more compact urban forms and rail and public
transport. Mode shift may account for a quarter of emissions reductions
in urban passenger transport, lowering the cost of transition and delivering
multiple benefits to the community.