Scope
- Strong decoupling between economic development and traffic is gradually achieved due to well-balanced policies, favourable to the implementation of cleaner and more effective technologies as well as to the increase of transport productivity due to better infrastructure and demand management. Moderate increase in GDP.
- CO2 is reduced quickly, but in a harmonious way, without hampering economic development.
- Changes in behaviour: policies aiming to modify users and firms’ mobility decisions are effective to some extent.
Similar scenarios
- “Urban Colonies” (UK Office of Science and Technology)
- “Shared Responsibilities” (Forward Studies Unit)
- “Creative Societies” (Forward Studies Unit)
- “Strong Europe” (CPB)
- “Riding the Rainbow” (EMCC)
- “Danubean-Europe, Cohesion-Oriented” (Espon 3.2)
- “Knowledge is King” (MedAction)
Population dynamics
- Large increase in total population mainly due to vegetative growth.
- Moderate immigration.
- Moderate ageing.
Socio-economy and technology dynamics
- In the short-term, the GDP increases at a lower rate than in the Induced and Constrained Scenarios, but it is more stable.
- Unemployment is strongly reduced thanks to the constant growth of the economy and flexible work regime policies.
- Support of R&D of renewable energy and distributed energy production technologies.
- Important development of new forms of personal services related to “tourism” (business, health, education, etc.).
- Income inequalities are reduced across European regions.
Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies
- Reduction of unnecessary trips thanks to technology (internet shopping, telecommuting, IT convergence).
- Better management of infrastructure to improve transport efficiency.
- Increase in urban infrastructure stock to encourage short distance trips.
- Internalisation of social and environmental impacts of transport activities.
- Pricing systems and incentive schemes in transport, including taxation, to encourage long-term behavioural changes.
- Land-use policies aimed at reversing the tendency towards urban sprawl help reduce travel needs.
- Enlargement of the EU towards the east, the Balkans and Turkey, and close cooperation with all other neighbouring countries.
Mobility and energy
- GDP elasticity of passenger transport (trips within Europe) decreases, but Europeans continue to devote to transport the same time and budget (so, trips to abroad have a dramatic increase).
- Elasticity of freight transport decreases slightly because economy turns to less material commodities. More trade with non-European economies.
- Average trip length is reduced.
- More intensive use of public transport in urban areas.
- Part of long distance traffic becomes short distance traffic.
- Shift towards slower and more environmentally friendly modes of transport.
- Transport price increases due to taxation, especially those relying on carbon-based energy.
- Optimisation of capacity, increasing the size of vehicles and occupancy ratios.
- Emission factors improve because technology is oriented to achieve this goal.
Storyline
- 2010-2020: CO2 emissions keep growing while the mix of policies is being implemented, but at a slower pace. During this period, the GDP grows because no radical measures are being considered to reduce global warming. Continuation of the process of economic liberalisation.
- 2020-2030: Slow introduction of behavioural policies. Land-use policies have led to an important reduction of urban sprawl, reducing the need to travel by car. Development of distributed energy generation, rise of renewables, while vehicle improvements in the form of hybrids and electric cars and a shift towards more ecological transport modes triggers a reduction of CO2 emissions. Introduction of online road pricing encourages a reduction in road transport use.
- 2030-2040: The transition to non-fossil fuels is almost complete and thus the economy does not suffer from high oil prices. While global mobility decreases, short distance trips increase because urban areas have become very dynamic with the help of highly-developed urban transport infrastructures. Taxation moves from being oil-based to the use of infrastructure.
- 2040-2050: Societal inequalities are further reduced, having a positive impact on the economy. CO2 emissions continue to be reduced.
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