Scope
- Economic failure due to a very slow process of technological implementation and lack of capacity of public administration to undertake structural reforms. The necessity of peak-oil or energy shortages is not felt.
- Welfare systems break down partially due to governments’ incapacity to face increasingly expensive pensions and health expenses. Long-term investments on research and infrastructure are reduced, leading to decreasing productivity rates.
- Changes in travelling patterns: strong regulation and legislation on mobility with heavy taxation and implementation of expensive carbon credits.
Similar scenarios:
- “Good Intentions” (Office of Science and Technology, UK study)
- “Turbulent Neighbourhoods” (Forward Studies Unit)
- “I’m in Love With my Car” (EMCC)
- “Security First” (UN GEO-3)
- “Convulsive Change” (MedAction)
- “Fortress World” (Global Scenario Group)
Population dynamics
- Very low increase of total population.
- Very low immigration.
- Marked ageing of population.
Socio-economy and technology dynamics
- GDP follows a short-term high growth pattern, but the lack of long-term sustainability planning leads to a sudden decline of the economy.
- Productivity gains are very low and decline over time.
- Trade levels grow marginally, mainly due to stagnation of economy.
- Tourism becomes more locally-oriented and sees very few increases.
- Unemployment grows as economy gets worse.
- GDP gap is reduced due to the introduction of carbon entitling system.
Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies
- Very low productivity due to the lack of public investments as well as the very low market implementation of new technologies.
- Strong taxation of GHG emissions and lack of non-carbon energy sources, as well as GDP decline, producing a mid-term reduction of traffic.
- Pricing and regulation intend to reduce high congestion levels and CO2 levels.
- Very strict land-use regulation leads to more compact urbanisation and thus reduces mobility needs.
- Increase in local public transport infrastructure.
- Little investment in R&D.
- Important application of CO2 sequestration facilities to cut down possible causes of global warming.
Mobility and energy
- Lack of long-term planning with insufficient financing of new projects and maintenance leads to the deterioration of infrastructure.
- Long distance traffic will increase for a short time, and then decline.
- Short distance traffic increases at a low rate, because of strong regulations.
- GDP elasticity of passenger transport decreases because of mobility constraints.
- GDP elasticity of freight transport decreases.
- The average length of trips decreases as urban sprawl is cut down and people become more mobile at a local level.
- Lack of sufficient R&D of energy source development makes it difficult to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy, and the peaking of oil from conventional sources boosts prices, leading to a global economic decline.
- Congestion levels increase due to the lack of infrastructure capacity, but decrease afterwards when mobility is reduced.
Storyline
- 2010-2020: Continuation of existing trends. Ongoing congestion levels and increases in oil prices pose difficulties for economy to grow. CO2 restrictions bypassed. Inefficient public institutions, that are unable to implement the structural reforms needed to open markets to healthy competition and to promote and finance technological innovation.
- 2020-2030: The carbon trading system is developed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions as well as limit transport demand. The economy suffers as private investments are less productive (because a reduction on public stock of physical capital and lack of flexibility on labour markets), and GDP goes down. Ageing is causing an important burden to public finances through public pension systems, reducing the funds available for the economic infrastructure and then reducing the overall productivity of the economy. As mitigation of ongoing climate change, an important effort is made in applying CO2 sequestration methods, partially used to facilitate drilling deeper oil fields.
- 2030-2040: Travel has become an expensive commodity, but the change has been very abrupt and the lack of long-term measures to solve the energy problem means the GDP level keeps decreasing. Carbon credits are now an important currency that has allowed less developed regions to catch up with the richest ones. More effective CO2 sequestration technologies are applied. Public finances start to find a better balance. Need for strict regulations in order to comply with CO2 targets in 2050.
- 2040-2050: Reduction of economic and transport growth together with minor policies aiming at energy efficiency result in a high reduction of CO2 emissions, but the price has been a global slowing of growth patterns. As a result, communities have become more local, and technology has not fulfilled the expectations raised at the beginning of the 21st century.
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