Scope
- Environmental concern: CO2 has to be reduced as much as possible in the shortest time.
- Changes in behaviour: policies aiming to modify users and firms’ mobility decisions are effective, complemented by restrictive policies whenever needed.
Similar scenarios
- “The Hundred Flowers” (Forward Studies Unit)
- “Regional Communities” (CPB)
- “Take the Train” (EMCC)
- “Sustainability First” (UN GEO-3)
Population dynamics
- Decrease of total population.
- Low level of immigration.
- Very strong ageing.
- Cities become more compact. Some detached self-sufficient communities.
Socio-economy and technology dynamics
- Technology improvements are limited, focused on environmental and safety conditions, as well as on organisational aspects.
- Productivity gains are limited.
- Companies do more local business, following the consumer’s increasing environmental awareness.
- Low relative growth of trade, due to the increasing protection of imports to encourage local production.
- Tourism grows more locally.
- Unemployment is marginal, since work is distributed across active population. Less working-hours per day.
- Increase of ecological taxes, and reduction of income-based taxes.
- GDP decreases, but global well-being may increase due to the internalisation of the environmental externalities of economic development.
- GDP gap across European regions is slightly reduced.
- The structure of regional economies becomes more balanced.
Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies
- Efforts on environmental education to reduce unnecessary mobility.
- Pricing and regulation to induce self-organisation in mobility demand.
- Better maintenance and management of existing infrastructure, giving priority to public transport.
- Moderate increase in local infrastructure, especially in clean public transport.
- Strict land-use policies to avoid urban sprawl.
- Large tax increases on fossil fuels and subsidies for renewable energy.
- Technology development focused mostly on safety and environmental efficiency.
Mobility and energy
- GDP elasticity of passenger transport decreases because of land-use policies and behavioural attitudes.
- GDP elasticity of freight transport decreases because markets grow mostly locally.
- Average trip length decreases, because the relative decline of long-distance trips increase in relation to short-distance.
- Transport prices increase, especially in the short term on roads.
- More use of renewable resources, even if not economically efficient, as well as electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles. No nuclear facilities are built. Oil is progressively less used, even before it reaches what would be its natural peak. Solar energy grows in the long-term. More decentralised production facilities and self-sufficient activities.
- Congestion increase in the short term, due to the lack of road and airport infrastructure capacity increases, decreasing notably afterwards when behavioural changes occur.
- Vehicle occupancy increases, since trips are optimised.
- Emission factors improve because technology is oriented to achieve this goal.
Storyline
- 2010-2020: Behavioural policies have implementation problems. Diversification of energy sources. Emphasis on land-use and mobility regulation. CO2 emissions grow at a lower ratio. Decline in GDP.
- 2020-2030: Emphasis on pro-active policies to reinforce behavioural policies. Land-use policies start to be effective. Important reduction of CO2 emissions. Increasing importance of local markets. Increase in renewable technologies. GDP becomes stabilised.
- 2030-2040: Continuation and intensification of the previous trends. Emergence of new technologies bringing sustainable economic growth. Zero-carbon economy practically achieved.
- 2040-2050: Stable and sustainable growth is maintained.
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