Scope
- Exponential growth of technology: substitution of oil by more efficient and clean energy sources leads to CO2 reductions in the long term.
- Technology reaches a “singularity” in 2045, leading to unlimited information (following the exponential increase in computer processing power) and unlimited and cheap energy (from petroleum-based to fusion and solar).
- Focus on economic growth.
Reference scenarios
- “Perpetual Motion” (UK office of Science and Technology)
- “Triumphant Markets” (Forward Studies Unit)
- “Global Economy” (CPB)
- “Transatlantic Market” (CPB)
- “Moonlight Ride in a Diesel (EMCC)
- “Rhine-Rhine, Competitiveness-oriented” (Espon 3.2)
- “The Markets First” (UN GEO-3)
- “Big is Beautiful” (MedAction)
- “Market Forces” (Global Scenario Group)
Population dynamics
- Moderate increase of total population.
- High increase of immigration, especially skilled workers.
- Marked ageing, but limited due to immigration.
- Emigration from north to southern “Sun Belt” regions.
Socio-economy and technology dynamics
- Technology increases productivity, thus boosting economy measured as GDP.
- High economic growth allows financing more research and spurs innovation.
- Globalisation process continues, with companies tending to delocalise production factors.
- External trade grows in volume and value, following globalisation patterns.
- Overseas tourism increases, both in volume and length of trips as transport costs are reduced relative to income levels.
- Unemployment levels are kept at about 10%, lifestyle changes force reforms in the labour market that delay retirement age.
- Economic disparities across regions become more marked as GDP gap increases.
- Regional specialisation.
- Enlargement of EU continues in the Balkans and Eastern Europe
Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies
- Transport development follows demand.
- Increase of infrastructure stock, for both roads and public transport.
- Better management and more intelligent transport systems.
- Online pricing is generally available for all transport modes.
- European policies are reformed towards a more intensive liberalisation.
Mobility and energy
- The GDP elasticity of passenger transport increases as urban sprawl continues and personal wealth grows.
- GDP elasticity of freight transport increases because globalisation patterns continue, as well as regional specialisation.
- Support of R&D to develop cheaper and more efficient just-in-time global transport.
- Transport prices decrease as new technologies allow the abandonment of carbon-based fuels and moving to cheap CO2-free energy sources.
- Support of renewable resources that have high economic efficiency.
- Congestion increases in the short term as well as CO2 emissions, but investments in capacity increase and new energy sources allow a mid and long-term reduction of congestion and CO2 emissions, even though traffic levels keep increasing.
- New vehicles provide faster, cheaper and cleaner transport.
- Continuous growth of ICT leads to increasing social and economic relations worldwide, leading to more personal and freight trip demand.
- Vehicle occupancy decreases following the individualism of society, mainly because of the need of flexibility and transport price reduction.
- Increase in average trip length due to delocalisation.
- Increases in wealth and in travelling speeds leading to longer or more frequent trips.
Storyline
- 2010-2020: A very efficient market economy overcomes institutional constraints, or forces institutions to adopt structural reforms, more open and flexible markets, resulting in high growth of the GDP. Emerging technologies increase the productivity of the economy, also in relation to the transport sector. Ongoing congestion levels and uncertainty in oil prices stimulates the support of research in new energy sources and increases the infrastructure stock. A mix of nuclear energy, clean coal and renewable energy supply, as well as the first introduction of cleaner fuel technologies (e.g. hydrogen fuel cells), assures energy provision. Existing transport vehicles are improved and reduce their CO2 emissions, but do not compensate for the growth in traffic, especially on roads. Intelligent traffic management systems have a significant importance in relieving congestion and increasing speed.
- 2020-2030: The diversification of energy sources, complemented by an open market policy allows for the continuous growth of the economy and traffic levels. European regions tend to specialise and economic and social disparities may increase. Emergence of new technologies in the transport sector, such as electric and hydrogen cars or the implementation of online pricing. There is a huge improvement of the efficiency of existing car engines. Renewable resources become more efficient. Huge productivity gains achieved thanks to ICT. Public investments strictly follow cost-benefit analyses (CBA). More public-private partnerships in the construction and management of transport infrastructures. Use of the most cost-effective technologies to reduce emissions.
- 2030-2040: Continuation of the previous liberalisation trends, with creation of economic poles. Retirement age increases but labour becomes more flexible. Welfare is not well balanced among people. Increasingly stressful and exciting way of life. Emergence of new energy sources, such as solar and/or nuclear fusion, providing cheaper, unlimited energy. There is a high travel demand, 24/7 “always on” society. Computers reach a capacity beyond that of humans.
- 2040-2050: The development of IT with virtually infinite capacity and almost free energy boosts GDP and traffic levels. Zero-carbon economy practically achieved.
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