This appendix provides a synthetic review of the main results obtained by applying the TRANS-TOOLS model and the TRANS-TOOLS meta-models to the different scenarios to the selected years 2005, 2020, 2030, and 2050. The 2005-2030 period is based on TRANS-TOOLS model, and 2030-2050 on the meta-models.

2005-2050 TRANS-TOOLS Meta-model Baseline Scenario

	2005	2020	2030	2050

Total population	491,999,371	494,733,795	491,110,000	486,218,917

Annual population growth	-	0.04%	-0.01%	-0.03%

Total GDP B€	9,853,475	14,228,276	17,338,098	24,359,922

Annual GDP growth	-	2.5%	2.3%	2.0%

EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	3,433	4,398	4,743	5,048
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	215	241	272	318

EU-27 inter-NUTS3 traffic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	1,491	1,755	1,825	1,921
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	161	250	387	526
Air passenger 1000Mpax-km	320	368	298	315

Extra-EU-27 passenger traffic
Extra-EU-27 passenger distance	4,773	5,015	5,177	5,500
Extra-EU-27 passenger EU distance	500	500	500	500
Air passenger in EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	68	95	113	151
Air passenger outside EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	651	950	1,167	1,664

EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight traffic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	395	407	458	465

EU-27 inter-NUTS2 traffic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	1,316	1,656	1,984	2,347
Rail freight 1000M/ton-km	447	644	796	1,222

Maritime freight traffic
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	1,525	2,223	2,645	2,949
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	52,022	75,309	91,820	129,104

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic variation
Road passenger	-	1.7%	1.3%	0.9%
Rail passenger	-	0.8%	1.0%	0.9%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic variation
Road passenger	-	1.1%	0.8%	0.6%
Rail passenger	-	3.0%	3.6%	2.7%
Air passenger	-	0.9%	-0.3%	0.0%

Annual Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic variation
Extra-EU-27 air passenger	-	2.5%	2.3%	2.1%

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic variation
Road freight	-	0.2%	0.6%	0.4%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic variation
Road freight	-	1.5%	1.7%	1.3%
Rail freight	-	2.5%	2.3%	2.3%

Annual Maritime freight traffic variation
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT	-	2.5%	2.2%	1.5%
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT	-	2.5%	2.3%	2.0%

EU-27 trafic
Passenger 1000Mpax-km	5,619	7,012	7,526	8,129
Freight 1000M/ton-km	3,683	4,930	5,883	6,983

Annual EU-27 trafic variation
Passenger	-	1.5%	1.2%	0.8%
Freight	-	2.0%	1.9%	1.4%

Passenger Rail share for long distance inland traffic	9.7%	12.4%	17.5%	21.5%

Freight Rail share for long distance inland traffic	25.3%	28.0%	28.6%	34.2%

Energy consumed by road oil-based transport inMToe	362	384	378	291
Average taxes on oil in €/litre	0.61	0.87	1.05	1.40
Taxes on oil by transport in M€	184,216	279,822	330,105	338,933

% Renewable in primary electricity generation	15	21	21	25
% Nuclear in primary electricity generation	35	38	38	40

Car CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	196	171	152	119

Truck CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	966	937	918	889

% non-fossil fuel vehicles	0%	4%	7%	22%

Energy consumption reduction per km in rails	-	13%	22%	40%
Energy consumption reduction per km in ships	-	16%	27%	49%
Energy consumption reduction per km in airplanes	-	21%	34%	62%

Car occupancy in urban trips pax/veh	1.40	1.43	1.46	1.50

Car occupancy in interurban trips pax/veh	2.0	2.17	2.28	2.50

Truck occupancy in ton/veh	7.0	7.26	7.43	7.78

Direct CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	6%	-4%	-23%
Indirect CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	37%	52%	77%
Total CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	7%	-3%	-21%

Direct cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	17,126	27,320	44,892
Indirect cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	493	863	1,714
Total cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	17,618	28,183	46,606

Table 23 : Results 2005-2050 baseline

2005-2050 TRANS-TOOLS Meta-model Decoupled Scenario

	2005	2020	2030	2050

Total population	491,999,371	512,630,655	527,286.472	545,598,557

Annual population growth	-	0.27%	0.28%	0.23%

Total GDP B€	9,853,475	15,308,650	19,093,763	29,051,343

Annual GDP growth	-	3.0%	2.7%	2.4%

EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	3,433	4,655	5,103	5,185
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	215	277	316	1,164

EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	1,491	1,800	1,846	2,200
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	161	378	589	864
Air passenger 1000Mpax-km	320	381	348	345

Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic
Extra-EU-27 passenger distance	4,773	5,182	5,455	6,000
Extra-EU-27 passenger EU distance	500	500	500	500
Air passenger in EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	68	97	114	148
Air passenger outside EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	651	1,008	1,242	1,777

EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	395	422	482	494

EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	1,316	1,714	2,114	2,599
Rail freight 1000M/ton-km	447	692	894	1,471

Maritime freight traffic
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	1,525	2,352	2,862	3,476
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	52,022	81,158	101,488	154,835

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic variation
Road passenger	-	2.1%	1.6%	0.9%
Rail passenger	-	1.7%	1.6%	3.8%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic variation
Road passenger	-	1.3%	0.9%	0.9%
Rail passenger	-	5.9%	5.3%	3.8%
Air passenger	-	1.2%	0.3%	0.2%

Annual Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic variation
Extra-EU-27 air passenger	-	2.9%	2.6%	2.2%

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic variation
Road freight	-	0.4%	0.8%	0.5%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic variation
Road freight	-	1.8%	1.9%	1.5%
Rail freight	-	3.0%	2.8%	2.7%

Annual Maritime freight traffic variation
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT	-	2.9%	2.6%	1.8%
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT	-	3.0%	2.7%	2.5%

EU-27 trafic
Passenger 1000Mpax-km	5,619	7,491	8,202	9,759
Freight 1000M/ton-km	3,683	5,181	6,352	8,039

Annual EU-27 trafic variation
Passenger	-	1.9%	1.5%	1.2%
Freight	-	2.3%	2.2%	1.7%

Passenger Rail share for long distance inland traffic	9.7%	17.4%	24.2%	28.2%

Freight Rail share for long distance inland traffic	25.3%	28.8%	29.7%	36.1%

Energy consumed by road oil-based transport inMToe	362	313	247	130
Average taxes on oil in €/litre	0.61	0.94	1.16	1.60
Taxes on oil by transport in M€	184,216	245,206	239,004	173,406

% Renewable in primary electricity generation	15	29	29	40
% Nuclear in primary electricity generation	35	35	35	35

Car CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	196	157	135	98

Truck CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	966	776	668	483

% non-fossil fuel vehicles	0%	17%	31%	55%

Energy consumption reduction per km in rails	-	13%	22%	40%
Energy consumption reduction per km in ships	-	16%	27%	49%
Energy consumption reduction per km in airplanes	-	24%	40%	71%

Car occupancy in urban trips pax/veh	1.40	1.47	1.51	1.60

Car occupancy in interurban trips pax/veh	2.0	2.03	2.06	2.10

Truck occupancy in ton/veh	7.0	7.58	7.97	8.75

Direct CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-13%	-31%	-61%
Indirect CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	64%	112%	206%
Total CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-11%	-28%	-55%

Direct cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	15,744	23,495	34213
Indirect cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	529	1,013	2,372
Total cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	16,273	24,507	36,585

Table 24 : Results 2005-2050 Decoupled

2005-2050 TRANS-TOOLS Meta-model Reduced Scenario

	2005	2020	2030	2050

Total population	491,999,371	482,577,527	461,401,130	431,090,794

Annual population growth	-	-0.13%	-0.26%	-0.29%

Total GDP B€	9,853,475	12,506,248	13,574,743	17,091,935

Annual GDP growth	-	1.6%	1.3%	1.2%

EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	3,433	3,876	3,759	3,863
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	215	235	301	423

EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	1,491	1,755	1,825	1,921
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	161	225	325	449
Air passenger 1000Mpax-km	320	319	247	295

Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic
Extra-EU-27 passenger distance	4,773	4,849	4,899	5,000
Extra-EU-27 passenger EU distance	500	500	500	500
Air passenger in EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	68	77	77	63
Air passenger outside EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	651	744	750	634

EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	395	343	339	264

EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	1,316	1,387	1,467	1,290
Rail freight 1000M/ton-km	447	564	595	698

Maritime freight traffic
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km[3]	1,525	1,950	2,062	1,861
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	52,022	66,328	72,179	91,121

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic variation
Road passenger	-	0.8%	0.4%	0.3%
Rail passenger	-	0.6%	1.4%	1.5%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic variation
Road passenger	-	1.1%	0.8%	0.6%
Rail passenger	-	2.3%	2.9%	2.3%
Air passenger	-	0.0%	-1.0%	-0.2%

Annual Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic variation
Extra-EU-27 air passenger	-	0.9%	0.6%	-0.1%

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic variation
Road freight	-	-0.9%	-0.6%	-0.9%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic variation
Road freight	-	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Rail freight	-	1.6%	1.2%	1.0%

Annual Maritime freight traffic variation
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT	-	1.7%	1.2%	0.4%
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT	-	1.6%	1.3%	1.3%

EU-27 trafic
Passenger 1000Mpax-km	5,619	6,410	6,457	6,950
Freight 1000M/ton-km	3,683	4,244	4,463	4,114

Annual EU-27 trafic variation
Passenger	-	0.9%	0.6%	0.5%
Freight	-	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%

Passenger Rail share for long distance inland traffic	9.7%	11.4%	15.1%	18.9%

Freight Rail share for long distance inland traffic	25.3%	28.9%	28.9%	35.1%

Energy consumed by road oil-based transport inMToe	362	298	246	182
Average taxes on oil in €/litre	0.61	1.01	1.27	1.80
Taxes on oil by transport in M€	184,216	249,650	260,322	273,525

% Renewable in primary electricity generation	15	18	18	20
% Nuclear in primary electricity generation	35	35	35	35

Car CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	196	165	148	137

Truck CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	966	815	728	676

% non-fossil fuel vehicles	0%	12%	19%	35%

Energy consumption reduction per km in rails	-	13%	22%	40%
Energy consumption reduction per km in ships	-	16%	27%	49%
Energy consumption reduction per km in airplanes	-	17%	28%	50%

Car occupancy in urban trips pax/veh	1.40	1.63	1.79	2.10

Car occupancy in interurban trips pax/veh	2.0	2.17	2.28	2.50

Truck occupancy in ton/veh	7.0	8.00	8.67	10.00

Direct CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-20%	-40%	-61%
Indirect CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	51%	73%	95%
Total CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-18%	-37%	-57%

Direct cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	15,339	22,292	32,007
Indirect cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	511	930	1,893
Total cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	15,851	23,222	33,900

Table 25 : Results 2005-2050 Reduced

2005-2050 TRANS-TOOLS Meta-model Induced Scenario

	2005	2020	2030	2050

Total population	491,999,371	513,731,529	524,036,455	545,740,798

Annual population growth	-	0.29%	0.25%	0.23%

Total GDP B€	9,853,475	16,242,184	19,971,630	31,717,532

Annual GDP growth	-	3.4%	2.9%	2.6%

EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	3,433	5,537	6,579	9,888
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	215	283	270	303

EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	1,491	2,180	2,509	3,460
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	161	316	413	858
Air passenger 1000Mpax-km	320	539	657	1,262

Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic
Extra-EU-27 passenger distance	4,773	5,349	5,732	6,500
Extra-EU-27 passenger EU distance	500	500	500	500
Air passenger in EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	68	103	119	170
Air passenger outside EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	651	1,098	1,368	2,207

EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	395	544	635	872

EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	1,316	2,249	2,923	5,843
Rail freight 1000M/ton-km	447	779	986	1,868

Maritime freight traffic
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km [4]	1,525	2,544	3,082	4,733
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	52,022	86,103	106,093	168,837

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic variation
Road passenger	-	3.2%	2.6%	2.4%
Rail passenger	-	1.9%	0.9%	0.8%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic variation
Road passenger	-	2.6%	2.1%	1.9%
Rail passenger	-	4.6%	3.9%	3.8%
Air passenger	-	3.5%	2.9%	3.1%

Annual Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic variation
Extra-EU-27 air passenger	-	3.5%	2.9%	2.7%

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic variation
Road freight	-	2.2%	1.9%	1.8%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic variation
Road freight	-	3.6%	3.2%	3.4%
Rail freight	-	3.8%	3.2%	3.2%

Annual Maritime freight traffic variation
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT	-	3.5%	2.9%	2.5%
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT	-	3.4%	2.9%	2.7%

EU-27 trafic
Passenger 1000Mpax-km	5,619	8,855	10,428	15,771
Freight 1000M/ton-km	3,683	6,115	7,626	13,316

Annual EU-27 trafic variation
Passenger	-	3.1%	2.5%	2.3%
Freight	-	3.4%	3.0%	2.9%

Passenger Rail share for long distance inland traffic	9.7%	12.7%	14.1%	19.9%

Freight Rail share for long distance inland traffic	25.3%	25.7%	25.2%	24.2%

Energy consumed by road oil-based transport inMToe	362	333	244	99
Average taxes on oil in €/litre	0.61	0.81	0.94	1.20
Taxes on oil by transport in M€	184,216	223,609	191,035	98,612

% Renewable in primary electricity generation	15	26	26	35
% Nuclear in primary electricity generation	35	43	43	50

Car CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	196	143	111	59

Truck CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	966	704	545	290

% non-fossil fuel vehicles	0%	20%	37%	70%

Energy consumption reduction per km in rails	-	13%	22%	40%
Energy consumption reduction per km in ships	-	16%	27%	49%
Energy consumption reduction per km in airplanes	-	26%	43%	78%

Car occupancy in urban trips pax/veh	1.40	1.30	1.23	1.10

Car occupancy in interurban trips pax/veh	2.0	1.83	1.72	1.50

Truck occupancy in ton/veh	7.0	7.41	7.69	8.24

Direct CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-3%	-25%	-56%
Indirect CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	70%	119%	369%
Total CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	-1%	-22%	-46%

Direct cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	16,580	25,173	36,805
Indirect cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	535	1,033	2,719
Total cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	17,115	26,206	39,524

Table 26 : Results 2005-2050 Induced

2005-2050 TRANS-TOOLS Meta-model Constrained Scenario


	2005	2020	2030	2050

Total population	491,999,371	514,190,744	517,483,715	488,212,797

Annual population growth	-	0.29%	0.20%	-0.02%

Total GDP B€	9,853,475	16,810,516	18,639,495	17,868,710

Annual GDP growth	-	3.6%	2.6%	1.3%

EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	3,433	5,849	6,244	5,411
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	215	341	555	596

EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic
Road passenger 1000Mpax-km	1,491	2,315	2,415	1,945
Rail passenger 1000Mpax-km	161	334	456	696
Air passenger 1000Mpax-km	320	581	689	633

Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic
Extra-EU-27 passenger distance	4,773	4,849	4,899	5,000
Extra-EU-27 passenger EU distance	500	500	500	500
Air passenger in EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	68	111	109	62
Air passenger outside EU airspace 1000Mpax-km	651	1,078	1,067	617

EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	395	560	563	340

EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic
Road freight 1000M/ton-km	1,316	2,338	2,646	2,189
Rail freight 1000M/ton-km	447	812	895	780

Maritime freight traffic
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km [5]	1,525	2,583	2,621	1,485
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT 1000M/ton-km	52,022	89,104	98,851	94,520

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS3 passenger trafic variation
Road passenger	-	3.6%	2.4%	1.0%
Rail passenger	-	3.1%	3.9%	2.3%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS3 trafic variation
Road passenger	-	3.0%	1.9%	0.6%
Rail passenger	-	5.0%	4.3%	3.3%
Air passenger	-	4.1%	3.1%	1.5%

Annual Extra-EU-27 passenger trafic variation
Extra-EU-27 air passenger	-	3.4%	2.0%	-0.1%

Annual EU-27 intra-NUTS2 freight trafic variation
Road freight	-	2.4%	1.4%	-0.3%

Annual EU-27 inter-NUTS2 trafic variation
Road freight	-	3.9%	2.8%	1.1%
Rail freight	-	4.1%	2.8%	1.2%

Annual Maritime freight traffic variation
Sea freight EU-27 and NCT	-	3.6%	2.2%	-0.1%
Sea freight outside EU-27 and NCT	-	3.7%	2.6%	1.3%

EU-27 trafic
Passenger 1000Mpax-km	5,619	9,420	10,359	9,281
Freight 1000M/ton-km	3,683	6,294	6,725	4,794

Annual EU-27 trafic variation
Passenger	-	3.5%	2.5%	1.1%
Freight	-	3.6%	2.4%	0.6%

Passenger Rail share for long distance inland traffic	9.7%	12.6%	15.9%	26.3%

Freight Rail share for long distance inland traffic	25.3%	25.8%	25.3%	26.3%

Energy consumed by road oil-based transport inMToe	362	460	404	246
Average taxes on oil in €/litre	0.61	1.07	1.38	2.00
Taxes on oil by transport in M€	184,216	411,455	465,648	409,789

% Renewable in primary electricity generation	15	29	29	40
% Nuclear in primary electricity generation	35	38	38	40

Car CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	196	171	156	129

Truck CO₂ emission ratio in gCO₂/km	966	843	770	638

% non-fossil fuel vehicles	0%	13%	22%	31%

Energy consumption reduction per km in rails	-	13%	22%	40%
Energy consumption reduction per km in ships	-	16%	27%	49%
Energy consumption reduction per km in airplanes	-	18%	29%	53%

Car occupancy in urban trips pax/veh	1.40	1.47	1.51	1.60

Car occupancy in interurban trips pax/veh	2.0	1.85	1.90	2.00

Truck occupancy in ton/veh	7.0	7.26	7.43	7.78

Direct CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	23%	6%	-36%
Indirect CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	72%	114%	94%
Total CO₂ emission variation 2005-2020	-	24%	9%	-33%

Direct cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	18,124	29,839	46,677
Indirect cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	532	1,038	2,132
Total cumulative CO₂ emissions 2005-2020	-	18,656	30,876	48,809

Table 27 : Results 2005-2050 Constrained

1. Appendix II: Results for exploratory scenarios 2005-2050

This appendix provides a synthetic review of the main results of TRANS-TOOLS and meta-models for the different exploratory scenarios considered, and the full period 2005-2050.

1.1. Results for the 2005-2020 period

1.2. Results for the 2005-2030 period

1.3. Results for the 2005-2050 period

2. Appendix III: Results of predictive scenarios for freight transport

In this appendix, results obtained by TRANS-TOOLS on freight traffic 2005-2030 for the Baseline scenario are presented.

TRANS-TOOLS freight traffic results have been analysed according to the NSTR category as well as the origin/destination of trips.

There are five different types of trips considered:

Regional: intra-NUTS2 trips.
Domestic: rest of trips with origin and destination inside the same country.
Intra-Zone: trips with origin and destination inside the same macrozone, South ( Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), North/Centre (rest of the EU-15), East (rest of the EU-27).
Inter-Zone: trips with origin and destination in different macrozones.
Extra-EU: trips with origin or destination outside the EU- 27, in one of the neighbouring countries.

It should be noted that the South zone lacks geographic continuity, apart from the cases of Spain and Portugal: the three southern European peninsulas have no land connections. Intra-zone trips in the South zone should therefore be lower than in the other zones.

This website is part of the Transvisions project, developed by Tetraplan (DK), Mcrit (SP), ISIS (IT) and Leeds University (UK) in 2008 - 2009 for the DGTREN European Comission. (EC DGTREN does not necessarilly agree on the full contain of this website)

Web development:

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