Future Trends in Energy Supplies
Lone Star Securities, inc. 2008

Oil supplies may not last forever. But oil will be available for use long beyond our children's lifetimes. While no one can accurately predict oil's relative supply and demand, even in the near future, several theorists have attempted to predict when and how the world will run out of oil. The most notable theorist on this subject is M. King Hubbert.

Peak Oil Depletion
Freddy Hutter. 2008

Chart for prediction and projection of Peak date, rate and decline.

An EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, and the Comittee of the Regions

The EU's new energy and environment policy agreed by the European Council in March 2007 establishes a forward-looking political agenda to achieve the Community’s core energy objectives of sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply. To make this a reality, the EU has committed to the "20-20-20" initiative: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, increasing the share of renewables in the energy consumption to 20% compared to 8.5% today and improving energy efficiency by 20%, all by 2020.

European Energy and Transport. Trends to 2030 - Update 2007
Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, EC 2008

The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its 2005 update. The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models. The Baseline scenario for the EU and each of its 27 Member- States simulates current trends and policies as implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006...

DGTREN - European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (update 2005)

The Baseline 2005 report provides an update of the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003. The new Baseline takes into account a high energy import price environment, the unsatisfactory economic growth of recent years and the more subdued growth prospects taking into account demographic developments. It includes, furthermore, new policies and measures implemented in the Member States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens, supported by some more specialised models.

HOP project. Macroeconomic impact of High Oil Price in Europe

The HOP! project (Macro-economic impact of High Oil Prices) is a research study co-funded by the European Commission within the VI Framework Programme. The project was aimed at evaluating the direct and indirect impacts of temporary and/or permanent increase in oil price on the whole European economy, with special reference to impacts on energy sector, transport sector and employment. In June 2008, the activities of the project have been successfully concluded and the project reports approved by the European Commission - DG RTD.

Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise
McCormick Rankin Cagney, et al, for the New Zealand Transport Agency.

Newspaper articles summarizing this study are available at http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominionpost/4664442a6000.html and http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10528808

This report provides practical guidance to central, regional, and local government agencies on how to manage the transport challenges associated with rising oil prices. It provides detailed information on:

•  Future Transport Fuel Price – Various forecasts are combined to model future transport fuel prices. This suggests that average oil prices will staying around $110 USD/barrel in the near future, but will increase to approximately $150 USD/barrel in 2012.  
•  Future Travel Demands - Models are used to predict future travel demands, taking into account fuel prices, economic growth, vehicle ownership, workforce participation, and disposable income. Under the average fuel price scenario total New Zealand vehicle travel declines below current levels until approximately 2016, after which the combined effects of population and economic growth will cause vehicle travel to increase.
• Optimal Responses to High Oil Costs – Various responses are identified and evaluated in terms of their ability to reduce economic risks and help achieve other planning objectives. The recommended strategies result in a more efficient and diverse transport system, providing various economic, social and environmental benefits.

World Energy Outllook 2008
International Energy Agency

Are world oil and gas supplies under threat? How could a new international accord on stabilising greenhouse-gas emissions affect global energy markets? World Energy Outlook 2008 answers these and other burning questions.
[executive summary] [key graphs]

Pure Power: Wind Energy Scenarios up to 2030
European Wind Energy Association, 2008

Over the last eight years, only new gas capacity has exceeded new wind power capacity in the EU. Since 2000, 30% of all installed electricity generating capacity in the EU has been wind power. While wind energy today meets 3.7% of EU’s electricity demand, the technology is already the second largest contributor to economic activity and employment in the area of power plant manufacturing. In 2003, the European Wind Energy Association set the target of 75,000 MW installed in the EU-15 by 2010 and 180,000 MW by 20204. Back then, it was expected that 54,350 MW would be operating by the end of 2006. The actual fi gure for end 2007 was 55,860 MW in EU-15.

Offshore Wind Farms in Europe
KPMG, 2007

Offshore wind farms (OWFs) with a total rating of 1,012MW are currently installed in Europe. Denmark accounts for most of this figure (426MW). The most dynamic market at present is Great Britain (404MW). There are major differences between the tariffs payable in Europe for supplying energy into the national grid. The most attractive market is Great Britain, with a total tariff of 13,49 ct/kWh..

Transport and Energy. The Challange of Climate Change.
International Transport Forum. Research Findings. 2008

Preparations for the discussions between Ministers and transport sector stakeholders at the 2008 International Transport Forum on Transport and Energy: the Challenge of Climate Change involved the organisation of a number of workshops and production of several publications by the Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC) of the Forum and the OECD. This note summarises the findings of that work and the research workshops held on the opening day of the Forum. Full publications and workshop presentations can be found on the Forum website www.internationaltransportforum.org . These research findings are organised as follows...

Outlook for Global Transport and Energy Demand
Krail and others. Deliverable 3 of TRIAS (Sustainability Impact Assessment of Strategies Integrating Transport, Technology and Energy Scenarios)

The main objective of the TRIAS project is to perform an integrated sustainability impact assessment of transport, technology and energy scenarios. In order to fulfil the requirements of an integrated sustainability impact assessment five models simulating economic, transport, environment, energy and technology systems were linked in TRIAS. Finally, the linked models are fed with technology scenarios as well as policies for transport and its energy supply.

Infrastructure to 2030 (volume2)
Mapping policy for electricity, water and transport
OECD 2007

This publication is the final report on the two-year OECD Futures Project “Global Infrastructure Needs: Prospects and Implications for Public and Private Actors”. It presents the main findings and policy recommendations from the project, as well as expert papers that assess the future viability of current business models in electricity, water, rail, road and urban public transport infrastructure sectors.

Cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector under stringent CO2-emission reduction targets
M.Grahn 2006

This thesis analyzes the world’s future energy supply in general, and cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector in particular, under stringent CO2 constraints. The analysis is carried out with the help of a global energy systems model (GET), developed and modified specifically for each project. GET is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuel. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that would meet exogenously given energy demand levels at the lowest global cost.

Zero Emission Coal Power, a new concept.
H.J Ziock, K.S Lackner, D.P Harrison

The Zero Emission Coal Alliance (ZECA) is developing an integrated zero emission process that will generate clean energy carriers (electricity or hydrogen) from coal.

Analysis of the impact of oil prices on the socio-economic situation in the transport sector. Final report.
ECORYS Transport (NL). April 2006.

The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive insight in the reactions of different actors in the economy (‘economic agents’) to such sudden increases, or price shocks, which have occurred several times since the first oil crisis in 1973.

An EU energy security and solidarity action plan.
Comission of the European Communities.

The EU's new energy and environment policy agreed by the European Council in March 2007 establishes a forward-looking political agenda to achieve the Community’s core energy objectives of sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply. To make this a reality, the EU has committed to the "20-20-20" initiative: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, increasing the share of renewables in the energy consumption to 20% compared to 8.5% today and improving energy efficiency by 20%, all by 2020.