Three fundamental uncertainties in the future of European transport were defined as specific goals for this study:
- Will the strong correlation that has been observed between passenger and freight transport on one side and GDP and GDP per capita growth on the other continue? (For which segments of the market? In which zones of Europe? Depending on what policies?)
- Will transport growth be decoupled from environmental impacts, especially direct CO2 emissions? (By which modes, or trip purposes? Using which technologies?)
- Which transport policies are the most effective to reduce CO2 emissions generated by transport activities over time, facilitating a sustainable and more stable economic development?
In order to explore these questions, the TRANSvisions study has defined long-term scenarios concerning the directions in which the European transport system could evolve. These scenarios, once defined qualitatively, were analysed by the TRANS-TOOLS model until the 2030 horizon, and complemented by meta-models that, from 2030 to 2050, also integrated results from other previous forecasts made by the European Commission and other institutions. TRANS-TOOLS is the Commission's new transport model that is based on a state-of-the-practice methodology, and was largely improved and updated in November 2008. It is already operational but not free from problems.
The scenarios were constructed by first studying the driving factors behind transport growth. Needless to say, the factors themselves are full of uncertainty. Such difficult factors include but are not limited to the ageing population, economic growth in the next phases of the globalisation process, new technologies—particularly in the field of energy and transportation, and transport infrastructure. All scenarios are plausible futures, even if they represent extreme or at least very different alternatives towards a post-carbon society.
From now until 2030, we may assume that policies now under discussion and emerging technologies will still be important. However, we do not know what transport will be like in 2050. The majority of policies and technologies that there will be in 2050 do not currently exist. It is possible that vehicles will pollute less and be more intelligent, and that online pricing and traffic management will make the current divide between scheduled, collective transport and individual vehicles much smaller. It therefore makes sense that the categories we use today as “transport modes” may not even be relevant in forty years. In order to somehow explore the many uncertainties involved, TRANSvisions made an intensive investigation into seeds, current developments all over the world that, even if embryonic, may show the starting point of a change that may have a huge impact in the future. These can range from online pricing and intelligent traffic management to new vehicles and energy sources or to major port and airport developments.
Some caution is always needed when analysing modelling results. Models, by definition, simplify reality but help us when thinking strategically, if they are systematic and consistent.
Considering current economic conditions, the Baseline scenario adopted in TRANSvisions (based on the official scenarios defined by DGTREN) may seem optimistic as to economic growth (1.9% p.a. in the Baseline up to 2050). However, it refers to the long-term future, and attaining this growth rate is still possible if structural reforms are carried out in the rest of the economy, and productivity gains due to new technologies, better organisation and more highly-skilled workers are achieved.
Economic recession, defined as 0% GDP growth on average in the 2008 – 2012 period, may cause traffic growth to stagnate, meaning that CO2 emissions also stop growing as fast as they have in the past. This could lead to a reduction of 5% in accumulated CO2 emissions in 2020 for the Baseline. However, it is important to avoid the slowdown of technology development over this period, or when traffic grows again CO2 will increase faster.
Will the strong correlation which has been observed between passenger and freight transport on one side, and GDP and GDP per capita growth on the other side, continue?
- The estimates worked out show that the answer depends on the segment of demand under consideration: transport inside and outside the EU follows different patterns.
- Transport within the EU tends to grow less than GDP for both freight and passengers.
- Freight transport grows more than passenger transport.
- However, transport with European origins or destinations that takes place outside the EU is expected to grow more than GDP for both freight and passengers.
- Also, within the EU long-distance transport grows more than short-distance transport
- These results were expected. We know that within the EU international transport tends to grow faster than domestic transport. It is a consequence of growing global economic integration. It is not necessarily a result, however, of increasing relations between cross-border regions, since short-distance international trips are not expected to grow as much as long-distance international trips within Europe.
- European economic integration of national borders still matters, as well as language and cultural backgrounds. If a new generation of Europeans is mobile like Americans already are within USA, transport demand in Europe will grow exponentially.
- On the other hand, commuting is expected to remain rather stable while business, personal and leisure trips abroad will grow faster. Tourism coming to the EU will also increase, especially from Asia.
- Road traffic is still expected to remain the dominant mode in passenger transport although it will lose some market share to railways.
- In relation to freight, road transport may be losing share, but just marginally.
- It is expected that SSS will continue to grow in Europe as much as overseas traffic. Therefore, transhipment hubs and secondary ports in Europe may become more important in their regional hinterlands.
- One of the biggest uncertainties in terms of trends is to assess the role of railways. The models obtain high growth rates for passenger railways and to a lesser extent for freight:
- Vehicle technologies, increasing CO2 emission limits for new vehicles and the introduction of non-fossil fuel vehicles.
- For freight, estimates show that the highest growth will be for rail freight, followed by SSS and then by road freight transport.
- For passengers, estimates show that rail passenger transport will grow the most, followed at a distance by intra-EU air transport and road passenger transport.
- Even with this extremely high rate of growth, the modal share of rail passenger transport grows only by a few points, and that of freight does not grow by much more. Nonetheless, these results are produced because of a relatively small increase in long-distance rail trips that may not necessarily result in an increase in the number of trains.
- Rail is an indispensable transportation mode for particular markets and corridors, but a significant modal shift from road to rail will barely happen for most markets. The models applied in TRANSvisions assume that gains in time and cost will automatically translate into traffic increases, which is not always the case. The sector has gone through big changes as it has opened to competition and experienced the implementation of large infrastructure and interoperability programmes such as the HST network or European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS).
Will transport growth be decoupled from environmental impacts, especially CO2 direct emissions?
- To focus calculations and reflection two arbitrary targets were set: a 10% reduction of CO2 by 2020 and 50% by 2050, the first inspired in the existing targets for non-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) sectors as a whole (as no specific CO2 targets exist for transport).
- The models show that with the combination of the following policy instruments it is possible to meet these targets. On this basis, and from the results of the exploratory scenarios, we conclude that it will be more difficult to reach a 10% reduction by 2020 than 50% by 2050. Targets defined in cumulative CO2 emissions could be far more effective in evaluating the alternative policy paths.
- We tend to forget that the environmental footprint of Europe is not limited to its own territory. By adding EU import and export transport as well as travel to and from the EU, the shadow of EU transport over the rest of the planet can be quantified.
- If we include overseas transport, just a fraction of EU freight traffic activity expressed in tonnes-km has both its origin and destination within the EU. Most of the EU’s tonnes-km take place outside the EU.
- The footprint of Europe in the rest of the world, measured in terms of CO2 direct emissions due to freight and passenger transport activities, is also high nowadays, just a bit smaller than emissions generated inside the EU.
- Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to think more of European transport as an activity that European citizens and companies do at world level, and not only within Europe.
Which transport policies could be the most effective in reducing CO2 emissions generated by transport activities over time?
- The analysed policies included
- Vehicle technologies, increasing CO2 emission limits for new vehicles and the introduction of non-fossil fuel vehicles.
- A reduction of vehicle speeds on roads and motorways and an increase in urban rail transport.
- Use of pricing mechanisms to increase occupancy rates and load factors.
- Selective road investments in congested road links.
- It must be said that all of these measures are applied over a baseline that already includes measures in the pipeline such as ETS for aviation, CO2 and cars and the internalisation of external costs for lorries.
- The most effective measures concern vehicle technologies and pricing, with the end of increasing occupancy rates. The measure concerning the reduction in vehicle speeds and public transport is moderately effective. The construction of new roads is the least effective, but still it brings about CO2 reductions due to the easing of congestion.
- The combination of these four measures would allow the reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020 by 10% and by 58% for 2050.
- Future trends are highly sensitive to the political decisions to be made in the coming years. Transport behaviour has a lot of inertia. Infrastructure needs time to be put in place, fleet renewal is slow, RTD results are uncertain. Moreover, the USA or Asia may be able to integrate innovations more easily than Europe.
- The analysis shows that, in the long term, technology and/or changes in behaviour will have an important effect on reducing CO2 emissions, whereas more traditional policy measures are necessary in order to fulfil the 2020 target.
- Since most CO2 emissions (72%) are produced by cars and trucks, policies inducing the renewal of the current fleet towards more energy efficient vehicles will have the most dramatic impact in the mid term.
- Policies focused on improving the productivity of road transport, by increasing load factors and occupancy rates, will also remain crucial to both reduce the social and environmental impacts of transport and to support economic growth.
- Large reductions of CO2 emissions need to involve instruments that can be implemented at a variety of levels of governance including the local.
These conclusions are based on the findings listed in the next section.
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