UNDER CONSTRUCTION, updated 06-23-2006 This webpage contains a description of the methods, hypothesis and results obtained by MCRIT within ESPON3.2 in relation to transport forescast and spatial and environmental impacts, for the main scenarios defined in the project, and using as input data and qualitative criteria provided by other partners of ESPON3.2. The information still is in process of being validated within the project. For any question please contact: Efrain Larrea at efrain@mcrit.com, or directly the coordinator of ESPON3.2 Moritz Lennert, from ULB. Drafting transport scenarios for Europe Transport forecast modelling (KTEN) Infrastructure supply: evolution in TENs 2000-2030 Mobility demand forecast : flows across Europe Traffic forecast : traffic passing through networks Potencial spatial and environmental impacts Map catalogue

Drafting transport scenarios for Europe

Four scenarios were developed, based on the overall intersectorial scenarios (demographic, economic...) defined in ESPON 3.2. In this sense, Transport modelling (KTEN model) has been coordinated with Socioeconomic modelling (MASST model). Transport scenarios include both infrastructure networks and market regulation, and demand generation and distribution. Both supply and demand scenarios are consistent and based on objective criteria. Based on these scenarios, flows and traffics in the networks were calculated for all scenarios, as well as spatial development and environmental impacts, in line with the goals of the Strategic Territorial Assessment in process of being defined in ESPON.

Theme: EUROPE IN A CROSSROAD
File: ..PPT
Size: ... Mb
Comments: Provides an overview of European current trends and policies, as well as reference scenarios.

Theme: LONG-TERM EVOLUTIONS IN EUROPE
File: ..XLS
Size: ... Mb
Variables:
Geographic scope: NUTS II (between NUTS II capitals)
Scenarios:

Theme: SOCIOECONOMIC FORECAST (PRODUCED BY UM-MASST)
File: ..XLS
Size: ... Mb
Variables:
Geographic scope: NUTS II (between NUTS II capitals)
Scenarios:

Transport forecast modelling (KTEN)

Theme: KTEN DESCRIPTION AND MAIN VARIABLES
File: .... KTEN_MODEL_DESCRIPTION.DOC
Size: ... 0.9 Mb

Theme: PARAMETERS USED TO DEFINE SCENARIOS
File: .... Main_model_parameters.xls
Size: ... 0.02 Mb
Geographic scope: Global / NUTS0 / NUTS2

Infrastructure supply: evolution in TENs 2000-2030

Theme: INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS

File: .... Infrastructure_networks.xls
Size: ... 1.18 Mb
Variables: Project costs and Network lengths for Road, Rail and Inland waterways
Geographic scope: NUTS2 / NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Mobility demand forecast : flows across Europe

Theme: PASSENGER FLOWS
File: .... Pax_flows.zip (zipped MDB)
Size: ... 11.8 Mb
Variables: Road, Rail and Air flows
Geographic scope: NUTS2 (between NUTS2 capitals)
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: FREIGHT FLOWS
File: .... Freight_flows.zip (zipped MDB)
Size: ... 9.5 Mb
Variables: Road, Rail and Short sea shipping/Inland waterway flows
Geographic scope: NUTS2 (between NUTS2 capitals)
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Traffic forecast : traffic passing through networks

Theme: ROAD TRAFFIC
File: .... Road_traffics.mdb
Size: ... 0.86 Mb
Variables: MTonnes-Km, MPassengers-Km, MFreightVehicles-Km, MPassengerVehicles-Km, MVehicles-Km
Geographic scope: NUTS2 / NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: RAIL TRAFFIC
File: .... Rail_traffics.mdb
Size: ... 0.81 Mb
Variables: MTonnes-Km, MPassengers-Km, MFreightVehicles-Km, MPassengerVehicles-Km, MVehicles-Km
Geographic scope: NUTS2 / NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: INLAND WATERWAY TRAFFIC
File: .... Inland_waterway_traffics.mdb
Size: ... 0.52 Mb
Variables: MTonnes-Km, MVehicles-Km
Geographic scope: NUTS2 / NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Potential spatial and environmental impacts
Theme: ACCESSIBILITY IMPACTS
File: .... Accessibility_matrix.zip (zipped MDB)
Size: ... 7.9 Mb
Variables: Distance, Time and Cost (all between centroids by the cheapest path)
Geographic scope: NUTS II (between NUTS II capitals)
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: CO2 EMISSIONS
File: .... CO2_emissions.xls
Size: ... 0.38 Mb
Variables: MTonnes CO2/year
Geographic scope: NUTS2 / NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Map catalogue

Theme: TRAFFICS
File: .... Traffic_maps.zip (zipped pdfs)
Size: ... 83.7 Mb
Type of maps: Pdfs with traffic density at regional level for freight, passenger and total traffic in absolute values and relative variations.
Geographic scope: NUTS3
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: TRAFFIC FLOWS
File: .... Traffic_flows_maps.zip (zipped pdfs)
Size: ... 46.2 Mb
Type of maps: Pdfs with traffic over the TEN/TINA network for freight, passenger and total traffic as temporal variations and scenario variations.
Geographic scope: ESPON space
Scenarios: Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: NETWORKS
File: .... Infrastructures.zip (zipped pdfs)
Size: ... 7.5 Mb
Type of maps: Pdfs with projects and TEN / TINA networks for Road, Rail and Inland waterways
Geographic scope: ESPON space
Scenarios: 2000, Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: MULTIMODAL ACCESSIBILITY
File: .... Accessibility_maps.zip (zipped pdfs)
Size: ... 13.7 Mb
Type of maps: Pdfs with multimodal accessibility considering stationary scenarios and dynamic scenarios
Geographic scope: ESPON space
Scenarios: 2000, Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030

Theme: CO2 EMISSIONS
File: .... CO2_emissions_maps.zip (zipped pdfs)
Size: ... 13.9 Mb
Type of maps: Pdfs with total CO2 emissions considering stationary scenarios and dynamic scenarios
Geographic scope: ESPON space
Scenarios: 2000, Baseline 2015 / 2030, Cohesive 2015 / 2030, Competitive 2015 / 2030