Could we imagine other futures for Europe?

integrated scenarios

thematic scenarios

european

prospective
institutions

key documents

hotspots

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When Princess Europa was kidnapped by Zeus in bull’s disguise, her father, Agenor, King of Tyre, sent his sons in search of his lost daughter. One of them, Cadmon, sailed to Rhodes, landed in Thrace, and set out to explore thelands destined to assume later the name of his hapless sister. In Delphi he asked the Oracle about his sister’s whereabouts. On that specific point Pythia, true to her habit, was evasive – but she obliged Cadmon with practical advice: ‘You won’t find her. Better get yourself a cow, follow it and push it forward, don’t allow it to rest; at the spot where it falls from exhaustion, build a town.’ This is, so the story goes, how Thebes was founded (and so – let us, wise after the fact, observe – a chain of events was started that served Euripides and Sophocles as the yarn out of which they wove the European idea of law, enabling Oedipus to practise what was to become the common frame for the character, torments and life dramas of the Europeans). ‘To seek Europe’, comments Denis de Rougemont on Cadmon’s lesson, ‘is to make it!’ ‘Europe exists through its search for the infinite – and this is what I call adventure.’

Zygmunt Bauman, An Adventure called ‘Europe’

Visions of Europe

Integrated scenarios

A. Scenario base

Dynamics and challenges of the European territory by 2006
Europe’s new dimensions and its close and global environments
Europe’s innovation capabilities and breakthrough of new technologies
Europe on the way towards a new energy paradigm
Changes in the European society
Main transport challenges for the wider Europe: containing the increase of traffic congestion and improving accessibility
New territorial challenges for environmental sustainability and impacts of climate change
Urban and rural Europe
Territorial cohesion and spatial integration at stake
Appendix: Methodology used for the calculation of polarisation and dispersal

B. Integrated baseline scenarios

Objectives and principles of the integrated baseline scenario
Hypotheses of the integrated baseline scenario
Scenario process

C. Integrated cohesive scenarios

Objectives and principles of the integrated cohesive scenario
Hypotheses of the integrated cohesive scenario
Scenario process

D. Integrated competitive scenarios

Objectives and principles of the integrated competitive scenario
Hypotheses of the integrated competitive scenario
Scenario process

E. Policy messages from the integrated roll-foward scenarios ?

F. Europe 2030: First draft in direction of a proactive, roll-back scenarios

Thematic scenarios

Demography and migration

Scenario base – Demography
Present situation, trends and forecasts
EU policies relating to demography and migration
Main driving forces
Identification of scenario hypotheses
Information sources
Appendix: tables and graphs
Scenarios
Scenario 1: Silver Century
Scenario 2: Open border
Scenario conclusions
Main issues resulting from the scenarios
Implications for EU policies
ESPON core indicators related to the scenarios
References

Transport

Scenario base ‘Transport’
Present situation, trends and projections
Nature, evolution and impacts of EU transport policy
Main driving forces in the transport sector
Identification of scenario hypotheses
Sources of information
Thematic prospective scenarios
Scenario 1: ‘More investments in motorways
Scenario 2: ‘Decoupling economic development from the mobility of people and goods’

Energy

Present situation, trends and forecasts
EU energy policy
Main driving forces in the energy sector
Towards scenario hypotheses
Information sources
Scenarios
Prospective thematic energy scenario ‘Europe in a context of high energy prices’
Prospective thematic energy scenario ‘Europe after oil production peaking’
Main issues resulting from the scenarios
Impacts for EU policies
Indicators
Main ESPON studies useful for the elaboration of the scenarios
Summary

Economy

Present situation and trends
Existing relevant EU policies
Driving forces and scenario hypotheses
Sources of information
Scenarios
Logic of scenario selection
Economy Scenario 1: Best foot forward
Economy Scenario 2: EuroTigers
Economy Scenario 3: Blühende Landschaften
Economy Scenario 4: National Revival

Governance

Scenario baseline
Present situation and trends
Existing relevant EU policies
Most important driving forces
Identification of the scenarios hypotheses
Bibliography
Thematic prospective scenarios
Scenario 1: Let a hundred flowers bloom
Scenario 2: Divide and Rule

Enlargement

Scenario Baseline
Current situation and trends
Existing relevant EU policies
Most important driving forces
Identification of the Scenario Hypotheses
Bibliography
Scenarios
Scenario 1: Europe as a ‘marketplace’
Scenario 2: Europe as a ‘Temple’

Rural development

Present situation and trends in agriculture and rural areas
Past and present EU policies
Driving forces behind agriculture and rural areas
Scenario hypotheses
Sources of information
Thematic prospective scenarios
Scenario ‘Open market’
Scenario ‘Sustainable rurality’
Main issues resulting from the scenarios
Possible ESPON indicators for the rural development scenarios

Climate Change

Present situation and trends
Existing relevant EU policies
Most important driving forces
Identification of scenario hypotheses
Sources of information (annex)
Scenarios
Scenario 1: ‘Repairing instead of preventing’
Scenario 2: ‘Anticipation of climate change by prevention measures’

Socio-cultural evolution and integration

Present situation, trends and forecasts
EU policies related to socio-cultural development and integration
Main driving forces
Towards hypotheses for prospective scenarios on socio-cultural evolution and
integration
Sources of information
Prospective thematic scenarios ‘Socio-cultural evolution and integration’
Scenario 1: Non-mastered socio-cultural integration
Scenario 2: Towards a sustainable multicultural and socially cohesive Europe
ESPON core indicators related to the scenarios