Models previsio


Forecast Models: Forecasting involves the generation of scenarios that corresponds to a plausible future evolutions. A forecast is based on past data, and a theory implemented into a mathematic formulation, as opposed to a prediction, which is more subjective and based on instinct, or educated guess. Scenario building is one of the most widely used methods to undertake forecasting. MCRIT has developed forecast models to define consistent and realistic future scenarios for demography, economy, energy, transport, land-use and environmental impacts at all geographic scales, often in cooperation with specialists in the different sectors, applying very different software tools and theories, from Dynamic Systems and Complex Systems algorithms, to standard 4-steps transport models. Forecast models developed by MCRIT have been transferred to their clients and maintained for years, such as SIMCAT in the Regional Government of Catalonia, and SIMPORT, in the Port of Barcelona. MCRIT was also involved in TRANSTOOLS, for the European Commission, and HIGHTOOLS, a more strategic European forecast model.


Model SIMPORT (Worldwide hinterland of the Port de Barcelona) (2006-2013)

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SIMPORTEl SIMPORT és el model de previsió estratègica del Port de Barcelona. Disposa de dades sòcio-econòmiques i d’infraestructures viàries, ferroviàries i marítimes així com de bases de dades de comerç a nivell mundial. Permet fer anàlisis de capacitat de les xarxes de transport i de l’abast del hinterland tant en situació actual com en escenaris futurs.

Modelo de evaluación de alternativas de implantación logística para CIMALSA (2007)

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logísticaIdentificació de possibles ubicacions logístiques, des del punt de vista del seu interès funcional, de la seva viabilitat tècnica i del seu encaix territorial. Es tracta d'identificar el sòl amb potencialitat de rebre implantacions logístiques i avaluar el seu interès relatiu.

Emissions and energy forecast model (2001)

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forecast modelBREN is a model designed to calculate emissions due to the consume of energy. It has been applied as a tool of backup for the execution of the Strategic Plan of Barcelona. It permits to determine the separated consumption of final energy and the primary and secondary emissions produced by this consumption.

Prospective model of freight in Magreb (2000)

MarocThe model calculates flows of freight between countries and regions from the Maghreb, from the data of foreign trade COMEXT of the EU.

Economic model: Crowding-out (1999)
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Crowding-outThe model forecast the impact of public investments in the growth of the GDP. The formulation is based on assuming that public investment drains private resources that would be able to be invested, but on the other hand, in the long time limit increases the productivity of private investments.

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