Prospectiva europea

 

European Foresight : Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into longer-term futures with a view of identifying the short-term policy and business decisions that most likely will influence change and produce the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits for the future. MCRIT has been involved in many different foresight exercises at Global and European scale, such as the PASHMINA and the FLAGSHIP projects lead by ISIS (Rome), or the “European Territorial Scenarios and Visions for 2050” lead by MCRIT. In these projects several consultancy and research institutions work together to apply comprehensive approaches, covering social, economic, territorial, transport and environmental aspects. MCRIT makes use of the best methodologies for each particular case, from modeling tools based on Complex Systems, formal scientific theories or heuristics, to DELPHI processes, focus groups and expert panels.

 

LivingRAIL - Vision for rail in Europe in 2050

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Livingrail

LivingRAIL is a research project funded by the European Commission.The Core objective of the LivingRAIL project is to develop a Vision for the future of the rail sector in Europe in 2050 supported by a roadmap of measures and policy actions to achieve the white paper targets of a 50% mode share of the railways in key passenger and freight markets by 2050. It develops a vision for rail transport in Europe 2050, and a roadmap for realizing it. (Fraunhofer ISI, DE, co-ordination).

Please dowload Vision 2050 for a Positive State of Rail and Spatial Patterns. The document describes the results of a broad visioning process by which we want to describe how Europe should look like by the mid of the century such that electrified rail and public transport cater half of medium distance passenger trips and medium to long distance freight trips. By a backcasting process the LivingRAIL Vision 2050 also develops the story lines how to arrive there from today’s situation.

www.livingrail.eu/

FLAGSHIP - Forward Looking Analysis of Grand Societal Challenges and Innovative PoliciesFLAGSHIP

FLAGSHIP is an FP7 project, funded by the European Commission (DG RESEARCH) under the “Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities” theme, with the aim of developing a “Forward Looking Analysis of Grand Societal Challenges and Innovative Policies”. It aims at driving change, supporting the policy shift from adapting to changes through short-term policy responses, towards anticipating, welcoming and managing changes properly. (ISIS, IT, co-ordination).

Based on the reading of latest books by Thomas Piketty, Luca Ricolfi and Jorgen Randers, MCRIT has developed meta-models focussed on maximising well being understood as a combination of growing economies, limited inequities and decreasing environmental impacts. Meta-models are open tools built on excel intended to support the strategic discussion of scenario implications and the identification of key areas of interest to be further analysed with specialised models.

Further information 

Visions and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050

Making Europe Open & Polycentric

Why does Europe need a territorial vision now?   In an increasingly integrated and accelerating world, European common visions and policies are needed. We live in a world of emerging economies, fast population growth and massive migrations towards large megalopolises, exponential increases of flows of information, goods, energy and all kind of resources. Europe's share of the world is disminishing in relative terms. Hundreds of millions of people are moving from poverty to middle classes worldwide but, at the same time, absolute social and regional disparities grow in the most developed world, also across European cities and regions. We face amazing technological prospects and major global environmental uncertainties. With increasing global threats and opportunities, policy matters and political choices to be made at European scale will be of paramount importance to prepare a sufficiently satisfying future for all European citizens in the coming decades.

More information:  MKEFinal_versionWebHD.pdf

See also map: Vision for Europe 2050

Baltic Scenarios 2010-2030 (2010)

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Baltic ScenariosThe 2010-2030 scenarios include a baseline scenario, an Arctic passage scenario - projecting the situation when the ice-free waters of the Arctic Sea enable summer season navigation to release saturated south Baltic Sea Region road/rail network from intercontinental traffic, and Green transport scenario - projecting the situation when the EU regulations and rules of the EU neighbouring countries lay ground for developing a network of green multimodal transport corridors as a priority network in the BSR (correspondent to present TEN-T network).

IEMed Survey on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) (2009)

Institut Europeu de la MediterraniaIEMedMCRIT is involved in the process of monitoring and evaluating the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership , an initiative that has been launched by The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and commissioned by the European Commission to conduct a yearly survey of actors and experts in the Euro-Mediterranean relations to assess the progress, achievements and shortcomings of the Barcelona Process.involving actors and experts on the Euro-Mediterranean relations with the aim of making a continuous and qualitative analysis of the key issues of the Euro Mediterranean agenda. The outcome of such survey will represent an annual assessment, monitoring and forecast of the expert opinion on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, and at the same time it will allow measurement of progress, identification of difficulties and challenges and description of future scenarios.

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