Papers on Modelling Scenarios

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Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research

The Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research has a number of publication series: the official reports, the periodical 'Ruimte in debat' (Space in debate) and informal papers. Most of our publications are in Dutch. For all of our reports however a summary in English is available on this website; some of the reports will have a full English edition. A number of the informal papers, too, will be available in English.
 

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A Flexible Method for Urban Vegetation Cover Measurement Based on Remote Sensing Images

Traditional methods use NDVI to investigate vegetation cover from remote sensing imagery. These methods provide per-pixel vegetation distribution, and cause a modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), when a meaningful statistical result is issued. In this paper, a new method based on advanced segmentation techniques and classification is proposed for urban vegetation investigation extraction.

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A New Method for Handling Complex Spatial Problems

Questions on the theme of what spatial developments will be in Europe the next ten, thirty to fifty years can be considered to be questions on the field of complex societal problems. These problems need an integral approach based on analysis of the temporary situation with reflection on the past and a focus on new developments, trends, political values and ideas about the future. Analyzing the spatial developments in Europe should be done by analyzing on a micro level the states of Europe, on a meso level Europe, and on a macro level the world.

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Boom or Bust? Modeling and Monitoring Land-Use Change and Resource

Kittitas County and Kittitas (USA) are two communities, for the most part, have depended upon the coal mining and logging industries to generate the majority of their revenue.  The last coal mine closed in the 1960’s and since that time the communities have existed as small tourist/service centers to the surrounding region.  The City of Roslyn gained renewed interest in the early 1990’s, when the hit television series, North Exposure, decided to use Roslyn as its live set. 

CommunityViz Software Suite

With this software the user has the ability to interactively sketch land use scenarios and to evaluate those scenarios against project objectives and constraints. It also supports impact analysis, indicator tracking and alternative comparison. agent-based modeling techniques to simulate likely future impacts of community planning proposals, providing planners with a view of likely economic and demographic outcomes years into the future.

 

Environment Explorer: Spatial Support System for the Integrated Assesment of Socio-economic and Environmental Policies

Enviornment Explorer is a system developed to support spatial scientists, planners and decision makers at the regional and nationa level in the Netherlands to analyse a wide range of social, economic and environmental policies and their associated temporal and spatial dynamics. The core of this system consists of linked dynamic spatial models operating at both the macro- and the micro-geographical scales.

 

Flexible Support for Spatial Decision-Making

Decision makers perceive the decision-making processes for solving complex spatial problems as unsatisfactory and lacking in generality. Current Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) fulfil their specific objectives, but fail to address many of the requirements for effective spatial problem solving, as they are inflexible, complex to use and often domain-specific.

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How to build scenarios; Problems in an era of uncernainty; Lawrence Wilkinson

It happens to us all. We look out into the future, trying our best to make wise decisions, only to find ourselves staring into the teeth of ferocious and widespread uncertainties. As we face each problem, we confront a deeper dilemma: how do we strike a balance between prediction - believing that we can see past these uncertainties when in fact we can't - and paralysis - letting the uncertainties freeze us into inactivity.

ICT Tools for Participatory Planning

There is a general tendency to increase participation of stakeholders in earlier phases of planning processes. These participatory processes require new instruments/tools with a strong focus on interaction, communication and participation. There is a need for ICT-tools that facilitate interaction, supply information on the planning environment and stimulate experimenting and learning.

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Integrating spatial models into local land-use decision making

This paper discusses integrating ecological models into land-use decision making at the local level. Examples are presented of spatial models now being used in land-use decision making; a new, more complex model that has yet to be introduced; and scenarios in which model-based land-management alternatives for South Florida's natural system boundary are evaluated based on the landscape structure and function of that area. A computer-based modeling environment called the Land Use Change and Analysis System (LUCAS) is presented as an organizational framework for integrating ecological models into land-use decision making.

KwaliWijzer: An evaluation framework for spatial interventions

The Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research is exploring options for developing a methodological framework and tool for evaluating spatial interventions. Such a framework can be used to analyse and estimate the spatial impacts of (large-scale) interventions, policy regulations and social trends with a spatial dimension. The goal of the project is to develop a tool that policy makers can use to find the answers they need and contribute to public debate.

Mapping scenarios: Modelling and designing future land use

Land use models are important tools for gaining insight into the spatial consequences of policy proposals and spatial interventions. Design exercises can throw up inspiring images that stimulate creative thinking about spatial development issues and how to resolve them.
 

Scenarios for the Future in the Regional and Local Territorial Planning

Planning is generally based on the preparation of decisions and the future actions. Therefore, in the regional and local (e.g. district or commune) planning the future conditions should be considered. Also, the plan should not only account for the current, but the upcoming problems as well. The importance of these predictions is proportional and becomes larger with the bigger uncertainties, the diversity of the futuristic variants, the scale and persistence of possible changes, the value of resources involved

 

Spatial Decision Support System for Location Planning

Decisions regarding appropriate locations are an important aspect of sustainable land use planning. GIS can help improve the quality of decision making through its increasing capacity of analysis, display and management of data. The traditional approach of location planning falls short of providing an interactive and graphic solution in a spatial context. This paper describes the design of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for planning the location of an additional service center in an interactive and graphic environment.