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KTEN
KTEN ("Know trans-European Networks") is a passenger's traffic forecast model developed to facilitate an strategic analysis of the trans-European Transport Networks in a wider pan-European and Mediterranean scale.
KTEN
is a sequential 4-steps model, with combined modal split and assignment
on multimodal networks (1 complete run of KTEN takes 150 minutes;
KTEN is 40 Mb large in total). KTEN uses STREAMS results, WTO and
EUROSTAT Air Traffic OD databases, as benchmark and/or references. All
databases and the whole model itself can be downloaded from a FTP address
or run though Internet using a simplified version.
An interactive application based on KTEN pre-calculated results for a
number of key scenarios has been published on Internet.
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DESCRIPTION OF KTEN (according to spotlights/Mdir) |
| Model name |
|
KTEN |
|
Abstract |
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Sequencial 4-Steps European Strategic Long distance Passenger Transport Forecasting Model (Projection: 2000-2025). Trip generation by ratios.Distribution singly contrained to origins. Modal Split combined with assignment with variable Value of Time. |
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Policy relevance |
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Evaluation of transport infrastructure projects and road-pricing policies Future scenarios with different accessing countries included in the European Union. |
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Geographical Scale |
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Europe: EU15 + Switzerland and Norvege and CEEC and Northern African Countries. |
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Time Horizon |
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2000-2025 |
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Scope of the model |
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Strategic |
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Transport domain |
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Long distance passenger |
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Intermodality |
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Multimodal chains allowed with predefined penalties. |
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Type of transport modelling Formulation |
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Sequential 4-steps, with independent Generation and Distribution, and Combined Modal Split and Assignment. |
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Integration with other forecast models |
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No yet |
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Integration with evaluation tools |
|
No yet |
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Integration with decision tools |
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No yet |
|
Modeller |
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Mcrit sl (Barcelona), Andreu Esquius / Enric Caņas / Ramon Catalā / Andreu Ulied |
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Propieter |
| DG-TREN/ASSEMBLING/Mcrit sl. |
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Status |
|
Public |
|
Applications |
| No analysis carried out using KTEN. Used within ASSEMBLING for demonstration purposes |
|
Legal Aspects |
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Unknown |
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Commercial Aspects |
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Not yet available, The aim is to disseminate the whole model in CDRom for free. The whole databases and software applications represent some 40 Mb. |
|
Imput Database structure |
| Xls file with socio-economic information and parameters, internal mdb file for Distribution and Modal Split -Assingment matrix storage. |
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Network definition |
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Simplified network: Detailed network as reference (ASSEMBLING
graph): |
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Zoning |
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295 zones |
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Organizational network |
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No public assignment. Costs based on a kilometric fare with delays (between 0 and 60 minutes) based on a frequency estimation for airlines. Airports were classified by categories and by countries, and frequencies assigned according to pre-fixed rules (based on the UTS Study). |
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Surveys |
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None. Some data from National's Surveys used as country trips rates. |
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Traffic counts |
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None |
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Socio-economic |
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SPESP (DG REGIO), Phare Toolbox, United Nations and different sources. |
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Basematrix |
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Used as benchmark: STREAMS by NUTS I, PHARE, EUROSTAT Air Traffic and World Tourism Organization. |
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Generalised Cost functions |
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Road: Rail: Bus: Air: |
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Planned improvements |
| Development
of simplified freight model Development of a policy interface |
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Types of users, units and vehicles |
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One user type for passengers |
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Trip purposes |
Bussines, Leisure and Personal |
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Time values |
EIB's Values for EU15 Countries, and Correlated values with Greece GPD for the rest of the non-EU15 zones. |
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Network calibration process |
No calibration because there is no capacity restrain on links. Forecasted traffics validated with United Nations traffic surveys. |
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Trip Generation |
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Zonal-based ratios (by NUTS 2 or equivalent), depending on:
Without calibration. Used STREAMS and other sources as benchmark. |
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Trip Distribution |
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Single origin constrained. By trip purpose: Bussines/Obligated
Vacation/Leisure
Visit/Personal proportional on predefined values based on Population citizenship on the resident countries. Without calibration. Used World Tourism Organsation statistics, EUROSTAT Air traffics, STREAMS and other sources as benchmark. |
|
Modal Split |
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Combined with Assignment on a multimodal network. |
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Other O/D Matrix Projection |
| None |
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Scenarios: Exogenous hypothesis |
Open to the analyst. Key variables: GDP growth, GDP distribution, EU enlargement process and demographic growth, network construction and road pricing. |
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Periodicity |
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Average day in the year |
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Assignment |
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Combined with Modal Split. All or Nothing assignement with penalties. |
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Sensitivity test |
GDP growth, GDP distribution |
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Type of the results |
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Long distance Traffic on road, railway and air-lines links. |
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Output Database structure |
OD matrix to be assigned (each OD has three values according to time values) and OD matrices by trip purposes. Traffics per link. |
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Internal Validations |
|
Comparison between forecasted and actual road traffics in links from United Nation surveys carried out internally. |
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Literature |
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No yet published. |
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Modelling software |
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Bridges/NIS, EXCEL and Mcrit AON assigment routines |
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Statistical software |
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EXCEL |
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Database software |
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DBF/Clipper, ACCESS, Bridges/NIS |
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GIS software |
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Bridges/NIS |
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Hardware |
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PC Intel Pentium III,450Mhz, 256Mb RAM (minimum) |
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Expected Running time |
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30 minutes for Generation/Distribution |
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Usability |
Generation/Distribution are carried out in EXCEL (and Visual Basic) with a user-friendly interface. Assigment is an streighforward process using Bridges/NIS assignment routines. |
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Validated by proprietor |
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Not yet |
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Validated by scientific committee |
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Not yet |
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Who fill this form |
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Mcrit sl |
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Audit: |
More information:
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